Week 9 ; Ch. 4 #3

Something that interested me in this chapter was the probability errors. A probability error is when the probability or chance of an event is under or over estimated by a huge margin. An example given was the probability of two people in your class having the same birthday. People usually think the probably is pretty low, but in reality, in a normal class size of about 20 students the probability is around 50%. With a larger class, the probability will also increase. An insidious form of probability error is gambler's error. This is the belief that previous events affect the probability in a random event. An example of this would be if you were thinking about a certain song, and all of a sudden when you turn on the radio, that song comes on. When this event occurs, many people usually thinks it's a coincidence, but it's a freaky one. An event that happens to me a lot of the time that is similar to this is when I call my mom, and right when she answers her phone, she says it's creepy because she grabs her phone to text or call me, but I call her right before she gets the chance. I think these are both errors that occur daily in people's lives whether they realize it or not.